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The math behind gambling: Why the house always wins

Your friends who gamble may brag about their “wins,” but here’s the truth… no matter what type of gambling, in the long run, the gambler always loses. This video explains the reality of gambling in South Africa. 

But why does the house always win? In every betting game, the odds are against the player. It all comes down to maths. You may win in the short term, but over time, the ‘house’, a.k.a. the betting establishment or operator, always wins.

The house always wins because they have a mathematical advantage over you, called the ‘house edge’. House edge is the difference between ‘true odds’ and ‘payout odds’.

True odds are the likelihood of an event occurring.

According to the Responsible Gambling Council, in roulette, your real chance (also called “true odds”) of winning is 1 in 38.

But if you do win, the casino only pays you as if your chance was 1 in 35.

  • True odds: If you were paid fairly for a 1-in-38 chance, you’d get 38 times your bet back.
  • Casino payout: The casino only pays 35 times your bet.

That small shortfall (38 vs. 35) is the “house edge”. It means you still win now and then, but over time, the casino always makes money because it pays you a little less than what the fair odds would be.

So even when players hit a jackpot, over the long run, if they keep playing, the betting house comes out on top. Remember, betting houses are businesses and that’s how they make their money.

Let’s look at the numbers for the South African betting industry 2023-2024 financial year:

Total amount gamblers bet: R1.14 trillion

The total revenue of gambling houses: R59 billion

That’s R59 000 000 000 that gamblers in effect gave away to betting houses. Imagine what South Africans could have done with that money if they had saved or invested it…


Also watch

Investing vs Gambling

 

Important contacts

Gamblers Anonymous

South African Responsible Gambling Foundation (free counseling)

 

Sources

 FSCA: The rise in gambling poses a danger to the financial health of youth
Moneyweb: Gambling surge threatens youth financial stability

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